What Is Product Sense and How to Develop It?
The skill of predicting success in product decisions and how to master it.
1Definition of Product Sense
Product sense is the ability to predict which product decisions will succeed based on patterns learned from past experiences. This skill requires not just creativity and empathy but also the ability to learn from experiences and apply them to new situations. With AI handling many technical tasks, product managers' ability to decide 'what to build' has become even more critical.
2Shortcomings of Existing Definitions
Experts like Jules Walter define product sense through empathy and creativity, but these definitions lack clarity on how to measure and develop these skills. Traditional advice focuses on gathering scattered inputs like product teardowns and competitor analysis, but these alone are insufficient for building reliable intuition.
3How Real Product Sense is Built
True product sense is the ability to recognize past successes and failures and accurately predict the outcomes of similar solutions. This requires completing the full experimentation loop: facing problems, choosing solutions, measuring outcomes, and reflecting on results. Experts use this process to make consistent decisions in fast-paced environments.
4The Importance of the Experience Loop
Developing product sense isn't just about collecting information from various sources. It requires completing the full experience loop: understanding problems, generating solutions from past experiences, evaluating them, and adapting as needed. This process enables intuitive decision-making across fields, from firefighters to chess grandmasters.
5When Patterns Apply (and When They Don't)
Product sense isn't just about recognizing patterns—it's also knowing when they don't apply. For example, a fire chief experienced in small fires may struggle in a skyscraper blaze. Daniel Kahneman and Gary Klein note that experts can only make accurate decisions in environments with familiar cues.
6High-Validity Situations
These are familiar scenarios where past patterns easily apply. For instance, a designer who has improved checkout flows before can fix similar issues without extensive new research—if user priorities align. High-validity environments allow experts to rely on learned intuition.
7Low-Validity Situations
These scenarios differ significantly from past experiences or lack clear feedback. For example, designing for a new market segment may require fresh approaches. In such cases, initial solutions based on past patterns might fail, demanding more research and creativity.
8How to Develop Product Sense
To build product sense, consistently experiment and analyze outcomes. Product managers should review data after each decision and reflect on results. Learning from diverse experts and drawing cross-domain analogies helps, but the key step is turning lessons into a personal repertoire of experiences.
9Why It Matters
In an era where AI handles many technical tasks, product sense is a competitive edge for product managers. It shifts focus from 'how to build' to 'what will succeed.' When properly defined, product sense becomes a measurable, actionable, and improvable skill—critical for modern product leadership.
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