El Niño and Saharan Dust Suppress Atlantic Hurricane Season
This year's Atlantic hurricane season could be one of the quietest in history.
1Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is on track to be one of the quietest in history. Only three named storms have been recorded since June, and these were weak tropical storms. One or two additional storms are expected by mid-August, but overall, the season is much calmer than anticipated. This is due to a combination of factors, including El Niño and Saharan dust.
2The Impact of El Niño
El Niño has rapidly intensified as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean reach record levels. This significantly alters global weather patterns. Increased convection over the Pacific and adjusted upper-level wind patterns cause unusually strong wind shear over the Atlantic, preventing tropical storms from forming.
3The Role of Saharan Dust
Dry and dusty air masses from the Sahara Desert suppress storm development over the Atlantic by acting as a lid on the atmosphere. This dust layer makes it difficult for storms to form. The West African monsoon has also been weaker than expected this year, further reducing the potential for storms over the Atlantic.
4Storm Activity in the Pacific
In contrast to the calm in the Atlantic, storm activity in the Pacific Ocean is at record levels. The Western Pacific typhoon season has been one of the busiest in the last 50 years by early August. Four storms, including Sinlaku in April and Bavi, Dolphin, and Genevieve in July, reached Category 5 strength. This highlights El Niño's impact on the Pacific.
5Measuring Hurricane Energy
Meteorologists use the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) metric to measure a hurricane season's activity. An average Atlantic hurricane season has an ACE of 122.5, but this year, only 3.1 ACE has been recorded so far. This is just 23% of the average for mid-August, showing how calm the season has been.
6Past El Niño Storms
Even under El Niño conditions, severe hurricanes can form. Past hurricanes like Camille, Ivan, Charley, Michael, Idalia, and Lee occurred during El Niño periods. This year's Tropical Storm Arthur broke Louisiana's 24-hour rainfall record with over 29 inches of rain near Cottonport. This shows that El Niño doesn't always mean a calm season.
7Warning for Coastal Areas
Fewer storms don't mean zero storms. Coastal residents should continue monitoring forecasts and remain prepared for potential storms. Severe hurricanes can still form under El Niño conditions. Therefore, emergency plans should be in place, and necessary precautions should be taken.
8Overall Season Assessment
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is on track to be the quietest since at least 2013. Factors like El Niño and Saharan dust have largely suppressed storm formation. However, past examples show that severe hurricanes can still occur during El Niño periods. Therefore, a calm season is no excuse for being unprepared.
Original article: Science Latest — El Niño ve Sahra Tozu Atlantik Kasırga Sezonunu Bastırıyor