# EH Bildu Projected to Lead Basque Country Vote on November 29 Polls indicate a historic shift as EH Bildu overtakes PNV in upcoming elections. - **Source:** [ABC España – Portada](https://www.abc.es) - **Published:** 2026-11-10 - **Topic:** [politics](https://brifing.si/c/politics) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/d0a7fee3-b302-4427-a6f0-6a57ced6335c ## Electoral Landscape Shift The upcoming November 29 elections mark the first stage of a three-part political cycle in the Basque Country. Current polling data from GAD3 suggests a significant realignment, with EH Bildu rising in popularity while the PNV faces a decline. This trend could potentially reshape the region's political leadership in future cycles. ## Projected Seat Distribution According to the GAD3 survey, EH Bildu is expected to secure seven seats in the Basque Country and one in Navarra. This represents an increase of two seats compared to the July 2023 general elections. The party is gaining ground in Guipúzcoa and Vizcaya, effectively doubling the PNV's projected seat count. ## PNV Facing Challenges The PNV, led by Aitor Esteban, is experiencing internal friction and declining electoral support. The party is projected to lose its independent parliamentary group status in the Chamber of Deputies. If these results materialize, the PNV would drop to the third political force in the region, failing to win any province. ## Left-Wing Political Dynamics Arnaldo Otegi has actively campaigned for broad fronts, seeking support from social democrats to position Bildu as the primary leftist alternative to the PSOE. Conversely, the former space occupied by Yolanda Díaz, including Sumar and Podemos, is projected to lose all representation in the Congress for both the Basque Country and Navarra. ## PSOE and PP Stability The PSOE is expected to maintain its 2023 performance, holding five seats in the Basque Country and two in Navarra. Similarly, the Partido Popular is projected to retain its current seat count, securing two seats in the Basque Country and two in Navarra through its electoral coalition with the UPN party. ## Corruption Contextual Factors The political climate is influenced by ongoing corruption investigations linked to public works contracts in the region. The Guardia Civil has identified the epicenter of these financial irregularities within the Navarrese socialist sphere. These legal challenges continue to cast a shadow over the broader political landscape during this current legislative period. ## Methodological Survey Details The GAD3 survey was conducted between November 3 and 5, involving 1,502 interviews with citizens over 18. The study utilized computer-assisted telephone interviews, covering both mobile and landline users. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.6 percent, with a confidence level of 95.5 percent for the total sample size. ## Future Political Implications These results serve as a critical indicator for the upcoming municipal and regional elections scheduled for next year. The potential for EH Bildu to lead the Basque government by 2028 depends on maintaining this current momentum. Observers are now watching how these parliamentary shifts will impact national governance and regional alliances. ## Sources covering this story - https://www.abc.es/espana/pais-vasco/bildu-doblaria-escanos-pnv-29n-perderia-grupo-20261110023010-nt.html — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._