Bitwise Raises 2036 Bitcoin Price Target to $1.6 Million
Despite recent market volatility, Bitwise analysts increase their long-term Bitcoin valuation projections.
1Revised Long-Term Price Target
Bitwise has officially updated its 10-year Bitcoin price target, raising the projection from $1.3 million to $1.6 million by 2036. This adjustment occurs despite a challenging period characterized by significant price drops and negative market sentiment. The firm utilized its established capital market assumptions model to incorporate the latest available economic data.
2Resilience Amid Market Downturn
Between October 2025 and June 2026, Bitcoin experienced a decline exceeding 50%, with prices falling below $59,000. Despite this volatility, analysts Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen opted to increase their bullish outlook. The revised forecast also boosts the projected compound annual growth rate for the asset from 28.3% to a new 34.3% figure.
3Expanding Addressable Market Estimates
The upward revision is driven by an increased estimate of Bitcoin's total addressable markets. Bitwise raised its 10-year store-of-value market projection from $91 trillion to $110 trillion. Simultaneously, the institutional investment market estimate grew from $216 trillion to $303 trillion, reflecting heightened investor concerns regarding fiat currency debasement and persistent global inflation levels.
4Institutional Adoption and Integration
Bitwise highlights that wealth management platforms, including Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch, are increasingly integrating Bitcoin rather than distancing themselves. Furthermore, central banks and sovereign wealth funds are showing greater interest in the asset. These institutional movements suggest a strengthening case for Bitcoin to capture a larger share of global financial markets.
5Market Share Assumptions Maintained
Interestingly, Bitwise chose to keep its assumptions regarding Bitcoin's specific market share capture unchanged from the previous year. The firm focused solely on the growth of the underlying addressable markets rather than assuming a higher penetration rate. This conservative approach emphasizes the impact of broader economic expansion on the asset's long-term valuation potential.
6Addressing Counterarguments and Risks
Hougan acknowledged significant headwinds, including stubborn inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. He also noted concerns regarding a potential AI bubble. Despite these risks, the firm remains focused on the structural data, which suggests that the total addressable market size outweighs the short-term macroeconomic pressures currently impacting sentiment.
7Increased Asset Class Resilience
Bitcoin's correlation with gold has notably increased, signaling a shift in its role within portfolios. The recent 53% peak-to-trough decline was shallower compared to historical bear markets, indicating improved resilience. Institutional investors continued to add exposure throughout the downturn, even as the pace of exchange-traded fund inflows experienced a noticeable slowdown recently.
8Long-Term Growth Trajectory
Bitcoin has successfully grown its share of the store-of-value market from under 1% a decade ago to over 5% today. By focusing on the expansion of offshore wealth and emerging market currencies, Bitwise maintains that the asset is positioned for sustained growth. The firm's analysis suggests that structural adoption remains the primary driver.
Original article: CryptoPotato — Bitwise Raises 2036 Bitcoin Price Target to $1.6 Million