PSOE Gains Ground After Minister's Resignation Amidst Right-Wing Majority
Recent polling shows PP and Vox maintain a solid majority despite socialist electoral growth.
1Political Landscape Shifts
A new Ateneo del Dato poll reveals the PSOE has grown by one percentage point, reaching 28.6% support. This rise follows the resignation of Transport Minister Oscar Puente after the tragic Urda train accident on October 28th. Despite this growth, the gap between the left and right political blocs remains at 13.9 points.
2Right-Wing Dominance Persists
The People's Party (PP) remains the leading political force, securing 31.5% of the vote. Together with Vox, the right-wing bloc commands a 50.1% majority, significantly outpacing the combined 36.2% of the PSOE, Frente Amplio, and Podemos. This coalition maintains its absolute majority, showing resilience against the current government's recent political turbulence.
3Fragmentation on the Left
The left-wing spectrum faces internal decline, with Frente Amplio dropping to 6.1% and Podemos falling to 1.5%. Combined, these parties hold only 7.6% of the vote, a sharp decrease from the 12.33% they achieved in the 2023 general elections. Voters are not shifting toward these alternatives despite the recent government crises.
4Leadership Preference Dynamics
Pedro Sanchez remains the preferred choice for Prime Minister at 26%, followed by Alberto Nunez Feijoo at 23% and Santiago Abascal at 19%. Notably, 16% of PP voters favor Abascal, while 14% of PSOE voters prefer ERC leader Gabriel Rufian. These internal preferences highlight complex loyalties within the major party bases.
5Public Perception of Leaders
All major political candidates face high levels of negative sentiment, with 'very bad' being the most common rating for everyone. Santiago Abascal is the most rejected at 44.6%, followed closely by Irene Montero at 40.5% and Pedro Sanchez at 40.4%. Despite this, Sanchez holds the highest percentage of positive ratings at 41%.
6Voter Loyalty Analysis
Vox demonstrates the highest voter retention, with 95.2% of its 2023 electorate intending to vote for the party again. In contrast, 76.8% of PP voters and 70.5% of PSOE voters plan to repeat their previous choice. These figures underscore the stability of the right-wing base compared to the more fluid socialist electorate.
7Impact of Recent Tragedies
The Urda train accident, which claimed 69 lives, triggered the resignation of Oscar Puente and a shift in transport competencies to Carlos Cuerpo. While the PSOE saw a slight increase in support, the tragedy has not fundamentally altered the electoral trajectory or the established distance between the two major ideological blocs.
8Electoral Outlook Ahead
With the general election scheduled for November 29th, the data suggests a polarized environment where the right-wing majority remains secure. The inability of the left to capitalize on government controversies indicates that party loyalty and ideological alignment currently outweigh individual candidate performance or specific administrative failures in the eyes of voters.