The High Cost of Drafting Running Backs in the NFL Top 10
Are premium draft picks on running backs worth the opportunity cost for NFL teams?
1Premium Picks Underperforming
The Las Vegas Raiders and Arizona Cardinals invested top-10 draft picks in running backs Ashton Jeanty and Jeremiyah Love. Despite these high selections, both players have struggled to meet expectations. Jeanty has seen his workload decline significantly, while Love is currently sidelined with his second ankle injury of the season.
2The Opportunity Cost
Drafting running backs early forces teams to bypass other critical positions like offensive line or wide receiver. When the Raiders selected Jeanty sixth overall, they passed on potential starters like Armand Membou and Kelvin Banks Jr. This decision highlights the tension between securing a skill player and building a foundational offensive unit.
3Historical Draft Regrets
History shows that teams often miss out on franchise-altering players by prioritizing running backs. In 2017, Jacksonville chose Leonard Fournette fourth overall, passing on Patrick Mahomes. Similarly, the Giants selected Saquon Barkley in 2018 while ignoring the opportunity to draft a long-term successor to Eli Manning at the quarterback position.
4Production vs. Draft Capital
Data from 2000 to 2023 reveals that only 13% of first-round running backs reached 5,000 scrimmage yards in their first three seasons. While first-rounders are more likely to be productive than later picks, the gap in efficiency between top-tier picks and Day 2 selections is often smaller than teams anticipate.
5The Efficiency Myth
Analysis of running backs drafted between 2016 and 2023 shows that first-rounders and Day 2 picks have nearly identical PFF rushing grades. First-rounders averaged 2.93 yards after contact per attempt, while Day 2 backs averaged 3.10. This suggests that talent is frequently available in later rounds at a much lower cost.
6Offensive Impact Limitations
Drafting a first-round running back does not consistently improve overall offensive performance. A running back cannot fix deficiencies in the passing game or compensate for poor quarterback play. Teams often find that their offensive output remains stagnant despite the addition of a highly touted, expensive rookie running back in the backfield.
7Financial Investment Realities
Jeanty’s rookie contract averages nearly $9 million annually, while Love’s deal is worth approximately $13.3 million per year. These figures represent significant salary-cap commitments. When these players fail to become immediate difference-makers, the financial burden limits the team's ability to address other roster weaknesses through free agency or veteran acquisitions.
8The Rarity of Success
While later-round gems like Alvin Kamara and Nick Chubb exist, they are exceptions rather than the rule. Most Day 2 and Day 3 running backs never become meaningful contributors. Teams drafting early are betting on finding a rare, elite talent capable of elevating the entire offense, which remains a difficult task.
9Nuance in Evaluation
Evaluating draft success requires more than just looking at total yardage. Even productive players like Ezekiel Elliott faced scrutiny because the team passed on other elite talents. The debate centers on whether a running back can be exceptional enough to justify the massive opportunity cost of a top-10 draft selection.
10Future Outlook for Teams
Jeanty and Love still have time to develop into the stars their teams envisioned. However, the current struggles serve as a cautionary tale for NFL front offices. Being a good player is insufficient for a top-10 pick; teams must secure transformative talent to justify bypassing other high-value positions in the draft.
Original article: CBS Sports – NFL — The High Cost of Drafting Running Backs in the NFL Top 10