Suspicious Ballon d’Or Betting Patterns Under Investigation
France Football probes cryptocurrency-based wagers that accurately predicted the top-five award rankings.
1Suspicious Betting Activity Detected
France Football is investigating a series of suspicious bets that correctly predicted the exact top-five finishing order of the Ballon d’Or. These wagers generated nearly £149,000 in winnings. The organizers have contacted the police to address concerns regarding the potential leak of confidential results before the official ceremony held at the London Palladium.
2Polymarket Account Coordination
An investigation by the French outlet Upside identified 12 accounts on the cryptocurrency platform Polymarket involved in the wagers. These accounts were created between October 1 and October 20. Seven of these accounts had no prior betting history, and six placed their initial bets just 15 minutes after their creation, suggesting highly coordinated activity.
3Precision of Predicted Rankings
The accounts placed over $264,000 in wagers, specifically targeting the exact sequence of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri, and Lionel Messi. By concentrating funds on this specific outcome rather than diversifying, the group secured significant profits. This extraordinary accuracy has raised serious questions about how confidential information was accessed before the ceremony.
4Tracing Blockchain Transactions
Upside co-founder Raphaël Pautard revealed that his team successfully traced one transaction back to a French platform. After sharing blockchain data and wallet addresses, the platform confirmed it identified the individual behind one of the funding accounts. While the identity remains undisclosed, this evidence is critical for establishing links between the suspicious accounts.
5Strategic Betting Adjustments
One account demonstrated a sophisticated strategy by purchasing a contract for Kane’s win at 37 cents and selling it at 67 cents. These funds were then redirected toward specific finishing positions, such as Yamal in third place. This sequence indicates that the account holder actively adjusted their strategy as the relevant betting markets developed.
6France Football Security Protocols
France Football, owned by Groupe Amaury, has organized the awards since 1956. Before the event, the organization stated that only a handful of individuals knew the winner in advance. Former editor Pascal Ferré emphasized that keeping the winner's identity hidden requires sharing the information with the absolute minimum number of people possible.
7Formal Investigation Procedures
Upside has officially passed its findings to France Football. The organization confirmed on Friday afternoon that a formal investigation has been opened into the matter. French police are also being informed of the findings. France Football has been contacted for further comment regarding the potential security breach and the integrity of the voting process.
8Implications for Prediction Markets
The incident highlights significant vulnerabilities in cryptocurrency-based prediction markets when dealing with high-stakes, confidential events. The precision of these bets suggests that information security protocols may have been compromised. Future investigations will focus on whether the leak originated from internal sources within the award organization or through external unauthorized access to data.