# Bitcoin Approaches Final Bear Market Phase: Signs of Recovery? Bitfinex report indicates BTC is nearing the end of its five-month downtrend period. - **Source:** [CryptoPotato](https://brifing.si/source/bd22636b-ec8d-42a8-8cca-1937c50e0f6c) - **Published:** 2026-07-14 - **Topic:** [Finance](https://brifing.si/c/finance) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/e6904bff-59cd-42ec-9bd6-9f30b34430b5 ## Bitcoin's Critical Juncture The Bitfinex Alpha report revealed Bitcoin typically experiences a 5-6 month bear market period. July marks the fifth month of this cycle, with analysts suggesting BTC could see significant recovery. However, macroeconomic factors may limit this optimism. ## Obstacles to Recovery US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and Middle East geopolitical tensions are cited as potential barriers to Bitcoin's recovery. Experts emphasize that merely reaching the end of the time window isn't sufficient - demand dynamics must also align favorably. ## BTC's Resilience Test Bitcoin absorbed record corporate selling this month and maintained a $61,300-$64,700 range despite geopolitical pressures. The asset's resilience strengthened further as spot Bitcoin ETFs broke a nine-week outflow streak. ## Glimmer of Hope in ETF Flows Bitcoin ETFs recorded $197.4 million in net inflows for the first time in over two months, signaling reviving institutional demand. However, inflows concentrating mostly on quieter days suggests no durable floor has been established yet. ## Key Indicator: 30-Day SMA Analysts highlight the importance of monitoring the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of ETF net inflows. This metric is crucial for tracking the primary direction of institutional positioning and persistent market demand trends. ## July's Decisive Role Bitcoin's future largely depends on whether July's seasonal positivity can overcome macro tensions. The SMA's next moves will provide critical clues about whether BTC is headed for a broader recovery. ## Sources covering this story - https://cryptopotato.com/bitcoin-nears-final-stage-of-bear-market-window-is-a-broader-recovery-in-sight/ — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._