SpaceX's first public earnings: AI revenue surpasses space business
As shares drop 11%, Elon Musk sets $1 trillion revenue target for 2030.
1SpaceX's revenue sources are shifting
SpaceX's first public earnings report revealed revenues nearly doubled to $7.8 billion. But the most striking development was that most income now comes from AI and satellite internet rather than space. The AI division brought in $2.6 billion (up 247% YoY) while the space business generated just $962 million. As The Verge put it, SpaceX now looks more like an AI company than a space firm.
2GPU rental business explodes
Nearly all of SpaceX's AI revenue came from a business line that barely existed a year ago: GPU rentals. The company signed compute power deals with Anthropic in May and Google in June, telling investors these contracts drove growth. A single buyer referred to as 'Customer B' (likely Anthropic) accounted for 19.5% of SpaceX's total revenue.
3Starlink becomes cash cow
Beneath the AI story lies the real profit engine: Starlink. According to GeekWire, Starlink revenue rose 66% to $4.3 billion while subscribers doubled to 12 million. With $1.7 billion in operating income, it's SpaceX's only profitable unit. As we've noted before, Starlink serves as the cash machine funding all other operations.
4Musk's bold internet prediction
Elon Musk told analysts people 'seriously underestimate Starlink,' predicting it could deliver 'a majority of the world's internet traffic' within ten years. President Gwynne Shotwell said SpaceX would soon challenge the 'big three' US mobile carriers in a market she valued at $600 billion. Rival satellite networks remain far behind for now.
5Investors spooked by spending
Capital expenditures jumped more than sixfold to $18.4 billion (mostly on AI), exceeding Wall Street expectations. CNBC reported this figure 'unnerved' markets. Despite executives promising each AI investment would pay for itself within a year, shares fell up to 11%. The BBC noted SpaceX now trades below its $135 IPO price and near half its June peak.
6Lockup expiration adds pressure
Bloomberg reported that when the lockup period expires Thursday, about $101 billion worth of insider shares will become eligible for sale. Roughly 35% of the tradable float is already sold short, reflecting investor skepticism about the company's near-term performance.
7Musk's ambitious targets
Musk moved up SpaceX's internal $1 trillion annual revenue target by one year to 2030, saying there's a 'non-zero chance' of hitting it by 2029. Achieving this would require the still-unprofitable company to grow roughly tenfold in four years. Musk compared SpaceX's data center advantage to 'the New York Yankees playing a Little League team,' calling their construction 'a trivial problem' next to reusable rockets.
8The decisive factor: Revenue-spending gap
Amid all the bold claims, one figure will determine whether the strategy works: the gap between revenue and spending. SpaceX aims to catch a returning Starship with its launch tower this month - a genuine engineering milestone. But the market now prices SpaceX as an AI infrastructure business with a rocket company attached. The first results didn't change this reading; they sharpened it just days before the lockup expiration.