# Super El Niño: Global Weather and Economic Impacts How the strongest El Niño in recorded history will affect weather patterns and economies worldwide - **Source:** [Science Latest](https://brifing.si/source/ebc20f22-8d1a-4ae4-ba4c-efcd0853ba19) - **Published:** 2026-08-17 - **Topic:** [Business](https://brifing.si/c/business) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/e8c7a19d-7344-45de-b478-b4d2ff7a7e5d ## What is El Niño? El Niño is a climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Occurring every few years, it releases heat stored in the ocean into the atmosphere, disrupting global weather patterns. According to NOAA, a three-month average temperature of 0.5°C above normal in the NINO3.4 region qualifies as an El Niño event. This year's event has the potential to reach unprecedented levels. ## Super El Niño Criteria While not an official meteorological term, scientists define 'Super El Niño' as events where ocean temperatures exceed average by at least 2°C. The years 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16, and now 2023-24 fall into this category. Berkeley Earth models suggest NINO3.4 region temperatures could reach +3.6°C above normal this year—even after accounting for global warming—surpassing the 2015-16 record by 0.8°C. ## Impact on Weather Patterns El Niño alters precipitation and temperature patterns globally. It typically brings increased rainfall to the US Southwest, decreased rainfall in the Pacific Northwest, and milder Atlantic hurricane seasons. Indonesia and parts of southern Africa face higher drought risks, while Japan, Australia, and Brazil may experience warmer winters. In 1997-98, Indonesia suffered its worst drought in 50 years due to El Niño. ## Effects on Water Resources The 1982-83 Super El Niño brought record snowfall to the Colorado River basin. Combined with high spring temperatures, river flow exceeded 1.5 times the average. Reservoirs reached capacity, forcing emergency releases, and Lake Mead nearly overflowed—the first time in 40 years the Hoover Dam spillway was used. Even 'positive' effects can cause significant flood damage. In 2015-16, sea levels rose over 18cm above average. ## Agriculture and Food Security The 2023-24 El Niño contributed to southern Africa's worst drought in a century, leaving 61 million people needing humanitarian aid. Fisheries and ski seasons are disrupted, though not all impacts are negative—some regions benefit from increased rainfall boosting agricultural yields. Anticipating these variations is crucial for preparedness and food security planning. ## Economic Consequences Analysis shows the 1997-98 El Niño caused an estimated $5.7 trillion in cumulative economic losses over five subsequent years. Infrastructure damage, agricultural losses, and disaster response costs contributed to this figure. The insurance sector faces increased claims from extreme weather, while energy demand fluctuations may impact markets. Global supply chain disruptions are also likely. ## Comparison with La Niña La Niña—El Niño's counterpart—features cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures, generally producing opposite effects: more rainfall in Indonesia, more active Atlantic hurricane seasons, and drier conditions in the US Southwest. However, El Niño's impacts will dominate until at least spring 2024. These phenomena typically alternate every few years. ## Why This Matters NOAA forecasts over 90% probability this El Niño will become 'very strong' this fall and winter. With only 0.5°C separating the strongest and fifth-strongest El Niños of the past 150 years, this year's potential 0.8°C record difference represents extraordinary warming. Combined with climate change, such events may increase in frequency and intensity, making preparedness efforts more critical than ever. ## Sources covering this story - https://www.wired.com/story/what-el-nino-means-weather-water-global-economy/ — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._