# Glacial Ice Cliff Collapse Patterns and Sea Level Risks New satellite observations reveal that glacial ice cliffs collapse in bursts rather than continuously. - **Source:** [New Scientist](https://www.newscientist.com/) - **Published:** 2026-10-15 - **Topic:** [Business](https://brifing.si/c/business) - **Original article:** - **On Brifing:** https://brifing.si/s/faf9b68f-309f-4969-bb0a-32204b0c71aa ## Observed Glacial Retreat Dynamics Recent satellite data indicates that the world’s thickest glaciers may calve icebergs up to three times faster than previous predictions suggested. However, this rapid retreat is likely not sustained over long periods. Instead, glaciers like Thwaites in Antarctica may collapse in intermittent bursts, characterized by intervening periods of relative structural stability. ## The Runaway Collapse Hypothesis Researchers have long feared that marine-based glaciers are vulnerable to runaway cliff collapse. The theory posits that each collapse exposes a taller, less stable cliff face further inland, potentially doubling expected sea level rise over the next century. Previously, this process was only envisioned through idealized mathematical models due to limited empirical data. ## Satellite Data and Observations Caroline Needell from the MIT-Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Joint Program utilized satellite data to provide the first direct, large-scale observations of tall ice cliff behavior. This research offers a firmer basis for estimating the danger of runaway collapse. The study confirms that while retreat is faster than modeled, unstable retreat was not observed. ## Mechanisms of Cliff Stabilization The risk of runaway collapse depends on two primary factors: the steepness of the sea floor and the velocity of seaward ice flow. Similar to thick honey thinning as it spreads, rapid ice flow can thin the glacier's edge, effectively reducing cliff height and potentially preventing a runaway effect despite interior thickness. ## Role of Underwater Ridges Most glaciers studied are currently buttressed by sea-floor features, such as underwater ridges that provide stabilization from beneath. Douglas Benn notes that glaciers like Thwaites move from one pinning ridge to another, a process described as tripping downhill. These ridges currently prevent the structural integrity of the ice from becoming completely unviable. ## Future Structural Integrity Risks Within the current century, Thwaites glacier may reach a point where these stabilizing ridges disappear and the sea floor becomes significantly deeper. At this threshold, the structural integrity of the ice may become unviable. This transition represents the point where runaway collapse becomes a real possibility rather than a theoretical risk. ## Thinning Versus Rapid Loss A critical question remains whether the thinning of ice due to rapid flow can outcompete rapid ice loss to restabilize the glacier. While the study suggests this might be possible, the outcome remains uncertain. The interplay between thinning mechanisms and cliff height will determine the long-term stability of these massive ice structures. ## Historical Context and Uncertainty Robert Larter of the British Antarctic Survey notes that while runaway cliff collapse has not been observed in modern times, evidence suggests it may have occurred near Thwaites approximately 12,000 years ago. Because no direct observations exist from that period, the phenomenon remains a significant uncertainty that requires ongoing monitoring and further scientific investigation. ## Sources covering this story - https://www.newscientist.com/article/2593672-towering-ice-cliffs-may-collapse-in-fits-and-starts/?utm_campaign=RSS|NSNS&utm_content=home&utm_medium=RSS&utm_source=NSNS — --- _Summary written by Brifing from the original reporting. Copyright in the original article belongs to its publisher; read the full piece at the link above._