Bitcoin’s $80K Rally Could Be a Trap
Analyst predicts Bitcoin could drop to $45K.
1Bitcoin’s Recent Rally
Bitcoin surged from below $60,000 to nearly $80,000 last week. However, analyst Nonzee argues that this move was driven by forced buying rather than genuine demand, calling it a trap. Nonzee believes the market is in a distribution phase rather than a new bull run.
2Impact of the Liquidity Squeeze
During Bitcoin’s rally, $3.1 billion in short positions were liquidated, with $1.65 billion coming from Bitcoin alone. Nonzee claims the price increase was due to this liquidity squeeze rather than a shift in market sentiment. This suggests the market experienced a forced move.
3Catalysts Behind the Rally
Nonzee ties Bitcoin’s rise to two catalysts: Trump bringing the CLARITY Act back into the spotlight and the Treasury Department increasing long-term bond buybacks. These events forced short positions to close and new long positions to open, despite an already tense market.
4The $70K Gap Closes
The analyst notes that the fair value gap around $70,000 has been filled, and the short squeeze has completed. FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) buying is now occurring. Nonzee predicts distribution and selling will follow.
5Potential Downside Scenario
Nonzee forecasts Bitcoin could drop from $77,000 to $67,000, then to $55,000, and eventually settle between $48,000 and $45,000. This indicates the market could face a significant correction.
6Bitcoin’s Current State
Bitcoin is trading around $78,000 at the time of writing, up roughly 22% over the past week. However, it remains 39% below its all-time high of $126,000 set in October 2025 and is still down 33% on a one-year basis.
7Altcoins and Market Tension
During Bitcoin’s rally, altcoins performed worse. ETH dropped 5%, and XRP fell over 6%. The Fear and Greed Index reached its highest level since last October’s crash, signaling market tension.
8The Market’s Future
If Nonzee’s predictions hold, Bitcoin could experience a significant drop. However, the market is going through a volatile period in both directions. The slower pace of open interest growth compared to price movement suggests investors are cautious.
Original article: CryptoPotato — Bitcoin’ın 80 Bin Dolarlık Yükselişi Tuzak Olabilir