Brazilian Voters Prioritize Labor Reform and Tax Relief for Lula's Fourth Term
Public opinion survey highlights economic concerns and legislative challenges facing the incoming administration.
1Top Voter Priorities
A recent Quaest survey reveals that Brazilian voters prioritize ending the 6x1 work schedule and eliminating taxes on basic food items for President Lula's fourth term. These two campaign promises are tied as the most important issues, with 17% and 16% of respondents respectively identifying them as primary goals for the new administration.
2Legislative and Fiscal Progress
The zero-tax policy for basic food items is scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027, following recent tax reforms. Meanwhile, the Senate has already approved a constitutional amendment to reduce the work week from 44 to 40 hours, marking a significant shift in legislative momentum regarding labor rights and employment conditions.
3Economic Concerns Rising
Among voters expressing concern about the future, 27% cite the economy, public debt, and interest rates as their primary worries. This anxiety is particularly pronounced among right-leaning voters. The gross debt reached 82.9% of GDP in September, contributing to market volatility and a notable decline in the local stock exchange performance.
4Monetary Policy Challenges
The Central Bank recently maintained the Selic interest rate at 13.75% per year, halting a series of five consecutive cuts. Finance Minister Dario Durigan indicated that specific fiscal adjustment measures will be presented in the second half of November, once the President returns from his international agenda to address the current economic landscape.
5Public Security Initiatives
The government is prioritizing a constitutional amendment to expand the Union's role in public safety, which was recently approved by the Senate. Although the creation of a dedicated Ministry of Public Security was a campaign promise, it currently ranks low as a voter priority, with only 2% identifying it as a top concern.
6Approval Ratings Comparison
President Lula begins his fourth term with a 48% approval rating and a 44% disapproval rating. This net positive balance of four points is the lowest among re-elected presidents in the series, trailing significantly behind his own 2006 record of 38 points and Dilma Rousseff’s 18 points recorded at the end of 2014.
7Congressional Conflict Outlook
Approximately 70% of voters anticipate increased friction between the executive branch and the new Congress compared to the previous year. This expectation is rooted in the fact that right-wing parties hold a majority in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, creating a challenging environment for the government's legislative agenda starting in 2027.
8Political Landscape Summary
Despite the anticipated legislative gridlock, 94% of respondents express hope that the administration will succeed. The government's first major test will occur on February 1, when both houses of Congress elect their presidents, determining the political alliances that will shape the implementation of the administration's core economic and social policy objectives.